The USC Trojans’ Path: Understanding Their Recent Bowl Projections and What They Imply for the Program's Future
The USC Trojans, having just finished their bye week, are gearing up for an important ranked clash against the No. 15 Michigan Wolverines. As the latest bowl projections by Brett McMurphy from On3 suggest, they are once again expected to land in the Valero Alamo Bowl slated to take place in San Antonio.
This is not the first time this scenario has surfaced; in fact, there have been multiple predictions associating USC with a battle against the No. 22 Iowa State Cyclones in the Alamo Bowl. However, following Cincinnati’s exciting upset victory over Iowa State, which recorded a score of 38-30, the Bearcats have now taken the Cyclones’ projected place. Should this projection come to fruition, it would mark a momentous occasion as the Trojans and Bearcats have never met on the field before.
Furthermore, this game promises to be a thrilling display of offense. Fans can look forward to witnessing exceptional quarterback-wide receiver combinations, featuring Jayden Maiava and Makai Lemon from USC facing off against Cincinnati’s Brendan Sorsby and Caleb Goodie.
However, it is crucial to understand what a likely appearance in the Alamo Bowl signifies for USC’s season trajectory. Their entrance into this bowl suggests that the Trojans may end up with two or three additional defeats this season, potentially wrapping up their record at either 9-3 or 8-4. For many fans who are deeply rooted in USC’s proud tradition of championships and triumph, such a record may not suffice.
USC supporters are yearning for coach Lincoln Riley to steer the Trojans toward a coveted spot in this year’s College Football Playoff. Unfortunately, the recent loss to the No. 17 Illinois Fighting Illini has placed a dent in these aspirations, making it essential for the Trojans to clinch victories in their upcoming critical matches against No. 15 Michigan on October 11, No. 16 Notre Dame on October 18, and against Nebraska on November 1.
The road ahead is clear: USC must achieve at least two wins from those three matchups to maintain a viable path to the playoffs before their showdown with the No. 3 Oregon Ducks on November 22.
Achieving a 9-3 record, while also remaining competitive in any losses, might appease a section of the fan base regarding a potential bowl appearance in the Alamo Bowl. However, it’s important to note that many alumni and ardent supporters are hoping for the Trojans to reach beyond those expectations.
In line with the sentiments of USC’s followers, competing in the playoffs instead of the Alamo Bowl would be a tremendous draw for recruits considering joining the team. Under Coach Riley's stewardship, the Trojans have established themselves as a recruiting powerhouse, currently boasting the No. 1 class for 2026.
Riley is actively working toward assembling another top-tier recruiting class for 2027, and a clear pathway to achieve that is participating in the expanded 12-team playoff. Despite the last few challenging seasons under his guidance, which led to an impressive 2026 recruiting class, a playoff appearance would significantly enhance USC’s appeal for potential recruits, as opposed to settling for just the Alamo Bowl.
Moreover, Riley’s demonstrated talent for developing players destined for the NFL—especially at the quarterback position, having coached prospects like Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray, and Caleb Williams—has been a significant factor in USC’s strong recruiting outcomes, even when on-field success has been elusive.
So, here's the burning question: Can the USC Trojans rise to the challenge and secure their place in the College Football Playoff, or will they once again fall short and settle for a bowl game that many feel is beneath their storied tradition? We invite you to share your thoughts in the comments—do you believe the Trojans can make a comeback, or are they headed for a familiar fate?
